Tim Moore - Staff Writer
With the drop of the green flag for the 67th annual Daytona 500 just a month away, optimism for teams around the garage is at an absolute high for the 2025 season. At every corner in the first month of the season opportunity presents itself, and no month may be more important on the NASCAR schedule than February.
In 2024, NASCAR made a controversial change to the schedule, opting to open up the season with Next Gen era Atlanta following Daytona, two tracks that each feature pack racing.
Last season, Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suarez earned his second career win in a thrilling and now iconic three-wide finish at Atlanta that propelled him to the playoffs. It also played a critical factor in his future, as he signed a contract extension with the team mid-season.
Suarez was anticipated to be a free agent going into the 2025 offseason, and many speculated that without that victory, he would not have been retained by Trackhouse.
After Team Penske earned its third consecutive championship in 2024 in what I like to call “the year of the upset” with now three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano, many criticized the playoff format, and in particular the “win and in” elimination format that NASCAR has utilized since 2014.
Logano had a lot of luck go his way in the back half of the year, as without it, not only would he have not won the championship, but had he not stretched the fuel at Nashville for an improbable 110 laps, he wouldn’t have even been a playoff contender. Over the past few years, we’ve seen many early upsets and surprises, and with this playoff format standing pat for 2025, it made me think about just how impactful winning in February really is.
Since 2017, the NASCAR Cup Series has run 16 total races in the month of February, and seven saw upset winners. If you do the math, that's a remarkable 43.75%. Let’s break down some of these winners who used a cold winter triumph to spark a successful season.
2017-18
The first upset came on February 26th, 2017, as NASCAR debuted its new primary sponsor Monster Energy. This iteration of the Daytona 500 was highlighted by being the final effort in the Great American Race for Hendrick Motorsports driver and future Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Earnhardt Jr. would be eliminated in a wacky way when Kyle Busch, who drove for Joe Gibbs Racing at the time, cut down a tire after a green flag pit stop cycle, collecting Earnhardt, who was in the lead just past halfway.
This wreck set up for a chaotic back half, eventually leading to a fuel mileage finish. Kyle's brother Kurt, ironically driving the Monster Energy #41 for Stewart-Haas Racing, went on to win the team’s first race representing Ford. But how impactful was the win?
As it turned out, Busch finished 12th in the overall points in the regular season, only winning that one race. Had he not won the Daytona 500, he would have been the first car out of the playoffs, missing the postseason by three points to teammate Clint Bowyer. Ultimately Kurt finished 13th in the final playoff standings.
A year later on February 18th, 2018, luck struck again, as this time Austin Dillon, the grandson of famed car owner Richard Childress, notched his second career victory after surviving a collision and crash on the last lap with SHR’s Aric Almirola. It was an iconic victory, as it was the first time the #3 had seen victory lane in the Cup Series since the late Dale Earnhardt.
But this triumph was ultimately the highlight of Dillon’s season, as he finished 19th in the overall standings at the end of the regular season. Like Kurt, Dillon too became a first round exit and finished the playoffs in 13th. The driver who got left out as a result, was ironically Dillon’s RCR teammate Ryan Newman. However, a February win once again proved enough to earn playoff eligibility in the modern format.
2021
Three years and a pandemic would pass before the next bunch of meaningful upset winners took the checkered flag in 2021. The first came yet again in the Daytona 500, as veteran Michael McDowell scored his first career victory in the Great American Race for Front Row Motorsports.
The following week, on Daytona’s road course circuit, another upset came to be as the young Christopher Bell, in his first full season with Joe Gibbs Racing, also scored his maiden Cup win after a memorable battle with Joey Logano.
Today, a Christopher Bell victory isn’t seen as an upset, as he is regularly a championship contender, but this win was the catalyst for him.
Come regular season’s end, Bell was 15th in the standings, while McDowell sat 21st. Had neither driver won, Bell would have been the last driver in the playoffs on points, while McDowell would have been well out of contention.
Neither driver made it beyond the second round of the postseason, but both of their Cup careers have been on a consistent upward trajectory since they capitalized in 2021’s “month of opportunity.”
2022
Another upset happened again in the Daytona 500, the first race of the Next Gen era. Team Penske rookie Austin Cindric blocked teammate Ryan Blaney into the fence to claim victory while making history, becoming the ninth driver in NASCAR Cup Series history to score their first career victory in the Daytona 500.
Cindric had a solid rookie campaign, ending the regular season in 14th in the overall standings. The win though was crucial, as 15 different drivers won a race in the regular season. Martin Truex Jr, in a situation that likely may never happen again, finished 4th in the regular season standings but missed the postseason, largely due to Cindric picking up that February win.
Similar to Bell the season prior, Cindric too advanced to the second round, but faced a similar fate, failing to go any further and finishing 12th in the final postseason standings.
2023
Daytona kept producing miracles as for the third straight season an underdog won NASCAR’s premiere event. This time, the crown went to JTG Daugherty Racing’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who not only snapped his own 199 race winless streak and ended the team’s 266 race winless drought dating back to 2014, but also went the distance in the longest Daytona 500 in history, as the race tallied to 530 total miles.
This win sparked confidence for Stenhouse, as he had arguably the most consistent regular season of his career, finishing 17th in the regular season standings. Unfortunately for Stenhouse though, the team came just seven points shy of advancing to the second round of the playoffs in his first postseason appearance in more than half a decade.
2024
Remember when we mentioned the addition of a second February pack race? Well, that produced one of the biggest upsets of them all. Daniel Suarez did what most drivers can only dream of, winning a race three-wide in nail-biting fashion by a thread. Suarez beat defending champion Ryan Blaney by three one thousandths of a second, at the time the third, but now the fourth closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series History.
As the regular season came to a close, Suarez added a stage win at Richmond to earn another playoff point, but his late surge in the regular season only led to a 18th place result. Had Suarez been on the other end of the photo finish, it would have been RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher who would have made the playoffs, one year after reaching the round of 8.
Suarez had a strong first three playoff races, surprising many as he made the Round of 12 with relative ease. However, similar to the upset winners prior of Bell and Cindric, bad luck hit hard and Suarez missed making the round of 8. Come the end of the season Suarez finished 12th in the playoff standings, an unjust result for how strong he looked in the playoffs.
THE FUTURE
With more changes to the NASCAR schedule for the 2025 season, the NASCAR Cup Series will yet again see Daytona International Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway on the schedule for its two February dates. The difference though comes in March, as this year Circuit of the Americas will serve as the third race of the regular season.
Perhaps while we have been blessed and spoiled to see so many Cinderella stories the last three years, one can be created in a different manner? With three unique races that see so many differing pit strategies and opportunities in points, mid-tier teams and drivers have a real chance to start the year strong by maximizing points.
Sure, it’s not as sexy or as thrilling as a win, but a strong three-race stretch could be all a team needs to build confidence to cement themselves in the points race. Who could capitalize during this period?
Drivers like Shane Van Gisbergen of Trackhouse Racing, Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger, Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch, Spire Motorsports’ Carson Hocevar and Michael McDowell, along with Front Row Motorsports’ Todd Gilliland are perfect drivers to look out for. All of them boast strong resumes in these styles of races and always leave an element of surprise.
But the true question is will we see the surprise winner yet again? Math says yes. While a dry spell is eventually due, this offseason has seen far more turnover and change roster wise in the Cup Series compared to years past. With more drivers winning than ever since the beginning of the Next-Gen era, the balance makes it very believable that the 43.75% (7 of 16 since 2017), will only continue going up from here.
One thing though is for certain, regardless if an upset happens or not, this February is the most meaningful one in a while. Points mean everything and you can guarantee that when the green flag drops on February 16th, every driver will be pushing as hard as they can for a season altering, or perhaps even career changing victory.
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